This is my first week posting my CFB picks, and I’ll keep a running total of my record. Spreads and totals. No parlays. Tail or fade with caution!
Georgia +4.5 @ Alabama
Since October of 2002, Alabama has been a home favorite of 7 points or less just 9 times. They are 1-8 ATS in these games, losing 6 of them outright. On top of that, if Kirby Smart can’t beat Alabama in front of fans that are only at 25% capacity, with the worst Alabama defense of the Saban era, and Nick Saban (possibly) not on the sidelines, they never will. Georgia’s defense is the best in the nation against the run this season and second overall in yards allowed. Alabama’s defense has been shaky. I like Georgia to cover, and possibly win, on the road.
Louisville @ Notre Dame Over 62
The Over has hit in 8 of Louisville’s last 9 games, mainly because of their awful defense. They are giving up 34.3 points per game, and have given up over 45 twice already this season, including 46 last week against Georgia Tech. ND scores over 40 points per game on offense. They run the ball a lot, but with a yards per play average of 6.3, expect ND to have a big offensive day against a poor Louisville defense. Louisville’s offense isn’t terrible, as they have a playmaking QB in Malik Cunningham, and explosive weapons in RB Javian Hawkins and WR’s TuTu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick. They will make some big plays and be able to have at least some offensive success. I like the Over here.
Kentucky @ Tennessee -6
Kentucky has struggled playing Tennessee over the past few years. In their last 8 matchups, the Wildcats are 1-7 ATS, and when playing the Vols on the road, they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Neyland Stadium. I expect Tennessee to get a nice bounce back win here at home, and cover the 6 points.
Texas A&M @ Mississippi State +5
This is kind of a wild card. Texas A&M beat Florida last week in a statement win for Jimbo Fisher, and Mississippi State has looked awful since beating LSU. I think there is a huge letdown potential here for Texas A&M. Although Mississippi State looked absolutely terrible last week against Kentucky, they still out gained them. The Bulldogs had 295 yards of total offense, and held the Wildcats to just 157. The problem was the turnovers, as K.J. Costello threw 4 picks, and his replacement Will Rogers threw two more. If we know Mike Leach, it’s that he is still going to come out firing, and Texas A&M could have their guard down. SEC road games are never easy, and I think there is a huge letdown potential for Texas A&M. I’ll take Mike Leach and the Bulldogs at home +5.
Ole Miss @ Arkansas Under 76.5
There are two reasons why I like this Under: 1. Both teams are coming off of extremely emotional and exhausting games. Arkansas should have beat Auburn and lost in maybe the worst way possible, and Ole Miss held a track meet with Alabama, losing 63-48. I think both teams will be a bit slower and perhaps a bit lethargic. 2. The number is so high. Ole Miss’s offense has been fantastic, scoring 35, 42, and 48 points in their first three games, but I think they slow down a little bit Saturday in Fayetteville. Plus, with an extremely high number like this, they can still put up a lot of points with the Under still hitting. I’ll take my chances with the Under.
Marshall @ Louisiana Tech Over 49.5
Marshall’s defense has been great this season, as they have given up 0, 7, and 14 points in their 3 games so far. They shutout Eastern Kentucky, held App State to 7, and gave up 14 on the road to Western Kentucky last week. As good as they have been, I think Louisiana Tech’s offense has the capacity to put up at least 20 in this one. They managed to put up 14 against BYU’s exceptional defense, and that was on the road. They are at home here. On top of that, Marshall should be able to put up a lot of points, as they are averaging 38 points per game, and Louisiana Tech’s defense is giving up 35 a game. Love the Over here.
Auburn @ South Carolina Under 52
Bo Nix is 8-1 with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions when playing at home. He is 3-4 with 9 TD’s and 7 picks on the road, and is about to play his third game in a row away from home. Auburn relied a lot on their running game last week, compiling 259 total rushing yards. With Nix struggling away from home and about to play his third road game in a row, I see Auburn sticking to the run a lot. The Auburn defense has been solid, as they are allowing only 22 points a game. Furthermore, South Carolina is 66th (out of 76 teams) in the nation in sacks allowed. QB Collin Hill has been taken down 10 times (with 20 QB hurries) already this season. Auburn should have a good defensive day, and Bo Nix’s road struggles could very well continue. I’ll take the Under.
UCF -2.5 @ Memphis
Two AAC title-contending teams here. Both teams are coming off losses and desperately need a bounce back win if they want to keep their conference title hopes alive. Memphis has not fared well against UCF in past seasons. The Tigers have lost all 13 games against the Knights since 2005, and Memphis’ only win in the series came in their first matchup in 1990. I think UCF is the better team, and although they are on the road, I like them in this spot. This is going to be a high-scoring game, as UCF has the #1 offense in the country at 582 yards per game, and Memphis is #8 at 505.5 yards per game. Close game until the end, but I like the Knights to win and cover.
Army @ UTSA Under 49.5
Army and their triple-option offense have hit the Under 4 times in 5 games this season, and the four games that went Under saw a total of 44 points or fewer. Army ranks seventh in time of possession at over 34 minutes per game and nobody rushes the ball more than the Knights’ 56.7 attempts per game. Needless to say—that clock will be moving. UTSA is also a run-heavy team, so that clock will REALLY be moving. On top of that, Army’s defense has been dominant, allowing only 12.6 points per game. Love the Under here.
Boston College +13 @ Virginia Tech
Boston College has been one of the biggest surprises to me so far this season. They are 3-1 with their only loss coming to #5 North Carolina. Their defense has been spectacular, and Virginia Tech’s defense has been awful. Virginia Tech is used to having great home field advantage at Lane Stadium, but with limited fans it won’t be the same. I ultimately think VT wins because of their running game, but BC is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings against VT. I like Boston College to cover the large spread on the road.
Title Photo: Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports