NFL Week 15 Gambling Picks
Last Week: 3-3
Chiefs -3 @ Saints
The Chiefs have won five games in a row, but have not covered any of those five games. In fact, they have not covered a game since Nov. 1 when they beat the Jets 35-9. I think they get it done here. The Saints were rolling and won nine games in a row before losing last week to Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Drew Brees returns in this game, and I am not convinced that the offense will be able to perfectly get back in the swing of things. Brees has not played in more than a month because of broken ribs and a punctured lung, and he will be without his favorite target, as Michael Thomas is out. I am just not sure how effective Brees will be in this one, and Patrick Mahomes is averaging 384.4 passing yards per game in his last six games, and has thrown 17 TD’s with just 5 INT’s in that span. I think the Chiefs offense will be too much and too fast for the Saints to keep up. Give me KC -3.
Texans +7.5 @ Colts and Over 51
The Texans defense is one of the worst in the league. They are second-to-last in the NFL against the run and second-to-last in yards per rushing attempt allowed. Indianapolis rookie Jonathan Taylor has been getting more and more carries each week, and has at least 90 rushing yards in each of Indy’s last three games. He exploded for 150 yards last week against Vegas, and I think he will be a big part of the game plan for the Colts, and I see Indy having a lot of success on the ground. Indy’s defense is much better than Houston’s, and they are stellar against the run (5th in the league with 99.2 yards/game). Houston does not run the ball very well, so I think they will air it out with Deshaun Watson. Indy is not as good against the pass as they are against the run (12th in the league with 227.8 yards/game), so I think Watson and the Texans offense will be able to have some success through the air. The Texans got embarrassed last week against the Bears, losing 36-7, but I think their offense bounces back here. This will be the second matchup in three weeks between these teams, and the total miraculously stayed Under in the first meeting, but it was 24-20 at halftime with just 2 points scored in the entire second half. I think this one goes Over. In addition, I like the Texans +7.5 on the road here. Sure they looked awful last week, but I think Deshaun Watson bounces back with a solid game here. They were also extremely close to winning the first matchup against the Colts outright at the end of the game. These division rivals usually play close games, as 12 of the last 14 meetings in this series have been decided by seven points or less. I’ll take Houston +7.5 on the road.
Patriots +1.5 @ Dolphins
Since taking the Patriots head coaching job in 2000, Bill Belichick and the Patriots are 21-5 against rookie quarterbacks. The Pats have won nine consecutive games against rookie quarterbacks, and their most recent one came two weeks ago when they dismantled likely rookie of the year Justin Herbert, and beat the Chargers 45-0 on the road. Tua Tagovailoa has been impressive in his rookie campaign, but still has a QBR below 60 at 56.5. Belichick has a way of disguising coverages against rookie QB’s, which can lead to confusion and turnovers. I think his game plan will give the Dolphins some issues on offense. The Dolphins will also be short-handed, as TE Mike Gesicki, WR DeVante Parker, and WR Jakeem Grant have all been ruled out. The Patriots looked bad in their last outing against the Rams, but I think they are in a good spot to bounce back against Tagovailoa and the Fins.
Eagles +6.5 @ Cardinals
After a hot start to the season, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have cooled off a bit. Arizona is 2-4 in their last six games, and one of those two wins was on the miracle “Hail Murray.” Meanwhile, the Eagles suddenly have a new boost of confidence thanks to Jalen Hurts. The rookie QB was great last week against a top-5 Saints defense, and I think he will have another strong outing in this one. With a rookie quarterback in just his second game as a starter, there is limited film on Hurts, and that can be difficult to prepare for. I think that gives the Eagles and advantage, and I see them keeping this one close from start to finish, and I’m taking them +6.5.
Title Photo: Jason Behnken / AP